Is the US on the Brink of Civil War?
Is the US on the Brink of Civil War?
Echoes of Civil Strife in Contemporary America
The depth of political divisions within the United States is evident in the fact that 41 percent of surveyed Americans, according to a study conducted by Rasmussen Reports, believe that another American civil war could occur within the next 5 years. Similar observations have been noted in other studies, highlighting trends that divide the American population. These divisions extend across domestic policy issues such as racial discrimination, immigration, abortion, gender laws, or constitutional rights; as well as foreign policy, particularly evident in the context of conflicts such as the U.S. confrontation with Russia in Ukraine and the socio-political divide over the current situation in Gaza.
Throughout its 248 years of existence, the United States has been in a state of war for an incredible 230 years, making warfare nothing unfamiliar to the U.S. and its political establishment. However, the pressing question now arises: Will the guns blaze on North American soil?
Disunited States of America
The American Civil War, fought between 1861 and 1865, pitted the Union in the North against the Confederacy in the South. It is widely acknowledged that the use of slaves as labor was the primary catalyst for the newly formed American nation waging war against itself. Perhaps the civil war would have never occurred if someone had sent the constitution of Serbia from 1835 to the Americans of that time, clearly abolishing slavery, as one of the first nations in the world to do so. However, such an event from alternative history would likely have had little effect, considering that the "American dream" always implied individualism and the opportunity for individual enrichment, often at the expense of nature and society.
The Civil War claimed 750 thousand lives, and its ultimate outcome was the victory of the Union and the institutional liberation of all members of the Black race from the chains of the slaveholding system. However, even though slavery was officially abolished, the system of racism and apartheid did not completely disappear for another entire century, and the ghosts and skeletons of that time still haunt American society to this day.
Abraham Lincoln was the President of the United States during the Civil War and is remembered in American society today as one of the greatest American presidents. He is credited with enabling the emancipation of blacks in America and thereby saving the U.S. from internal division. However, although he saw slavery as morally wrong, he also believed that whites were a superior race to blacks, which, by today's standards, could at least characterize him as a racist. Historians always refer to the "spirit of the times," which is why some of these views are partially forgiven today.
This and the events preceding the formation of the American nation, such as the systematic destruction of almost the entire indigenous population of North America, still shake the political existence of the United States, as they question the stability and legitimacy of all the foundations upon which the American nation was founded. Therefore, it should not surprise us that "cancel" culture and the efforts of marginalized groups in America to erase all historical traces of the U.S., which daily remind the American society of genocide, institutionalized slavery, racism, xenophobia.
America first went to war because of divisions over slavery, and today's divisions extend through almost all major political issues. States with the strictest abortion laws, the loosest gun sales laws, and the greatest legal restrictions on LGBTQ individuals all voted for Donald Trump in the previous elections, and surveys show that nothing will change in the upcoming elections.
The level of political division in the country was particularly evident in January of this year when the U.S. Supreme Court ordered Texas to remove the barbed wire it had placed along the Rio Grande to prevent migrants from crossing the border. However, Texas Governor Greg Abbott refused to comply with this order, claiming that the agreement between the federal states and the United States had been violated due to President Biden's failure to stop illegal immigration. Governor Abbott's belief that the U.S. Constitution is a non-binding agreement that states can ignore at will greatly resembles the Confederacy's justification for being able to leave the Union in 1861, which led to the Civil War in America.
In addition to major internal divisions, many world events are opening up new political fronts within America itself. This can clearly be seen in the fact that even 70 percent of Republicans believe that the U.S. should not have sent military and financial aid to Ukraine, while the same percentage of Democrats support that idea. Republican Congresswoman from Georgia, Marjorie Taylor Greene, has openly stated that the U.S. should be divided into "red" and "blue" states, i.e., a Republican and Democratic union. The fact that even a quarter of Americans would support their state leaving the Union speaks to the seriousness of the situation. Considering that, according to unofficial estimates, American civilians legally and illegally possess an incredible 393 million firearms, we can understand how tense things really are in the U.S.
Fall of the New Rome
History doesn't always repeat itself, but it often rhymes, which is why historians widely compare the U.S. to the Roman Empire, specifically the period when Rome was a Republic. This is not denied even by the founders of the U.S., who clearly invoked ancient Rome when laying the foundations of the new state. Modern historians have recognized comprehensive trends, i.e., historical cycles characteristic of all great empires, which extend from their inception, development, to their downfall.
Although it is sometimes difficult to draw precise parallels and clearly determine which historical cycle we are currently in, there is general agreement that today's U.S. bears a striking resemblance to the late Roman Republic period. Then as now, we can clearly observe a world dominated by a superpower, with turbulent internal politics and a population with declining faith in state institutions. In this period, the influence of religion is waning, the economy is centralized, with the majority of the population working for a large corporation, while local cultures suffer at the hands of a globally dominant culture.
In the Roman Republic, the Senate was divided into two opposing factions, the optimates and the populares, i.e., conservative aristocrats and progressive populists, whose opposition resembles the current political divide in America between Republicans and Democrats. In such societies, there is a political rise of wealthy and charismatic "strongmen" who promise the discontented population that they will fix the entire system, which in the case of the Roman Republic led to the rise of Gaius Julius Caesar, and ultimately to his assassination and a new civil war. In the American media, Donald Trump has already been compared to Caesar, and there seems to be an ongoing attempt at a political assassination of this former American president.
Caesar was stabbed 23 times with a knife, while nearly a hundred different legal proceedings are currently underway against Trump. It is believed that Trump could be convicted in some trial if he loses the upcoming presidential elections, which would have incalculable consequences for American society. The loss of Donald Trump in the last American elections has angered some of his supporters, who, with the intention of preventing the official confirmation that Joe Biden won the elections, occupied state institutions on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, political differences are intensifying, and the results of the upcoming elections will not leave anyone indifferent.
For now, all polls show that Donald Trump has a huge advantage over current American President Joe Biden and will likely win the November elections unless unexpected changes occur. In any case, neither of these two presidents has shown the ability to bridge the gap that has formed in American society, which ultimately could lead to even greater internal conflicts and political divisions, as was the case with ancient Rome. Only time will tell which direction the American society is headed towards, and if we as humanity have learned anything from history, it is that we learn nothing from history.